Government policies to increase economic growth are focused on trying to increase aggregate demand (demand side policies) or increase aggregate supply/productivity (supply side policies)

政府提高經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的政策主要是試圖增加總需求（需求方政策）或增加總供應(yīng)/生產(chǎn)力（供應(yīng)方政策）

• Demand side policies include 需求方政策包括:Fiscal policy (cutting taxes/increasing government spending)Monetary policy (cutting interest rates) 財(cái)政政策（減稅/增加政府開支）貨幣政策（降低利率）
• Supply side policies include 供應(yīng)方政策包括:Privatisation, deregulation, tax cuts, free trade agreements (free market supply side policies)Improved education and training, improved infrastructure. (interventionist supply side policies) 私有化，放松管制，減稅，自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定（自由市場(chǎng)供應(yīng)方政策）改善教育和培訓(xùn)，改善基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施。(干預(yù)性的供應(yīng)方政策)

Demand side policies are important during a recession or period of economic stagnation. Supply side policies are relevant for improving the long run growth in productivity.

需求方政策在經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退或經(jīng)濟(jì)停滯時(shí)期很重要。供應(yīng)方政策與改善生產(chǎn)力的長(zhǎng)期增長(zhǎng)有關(guān)。

Demand side policies 需求方政策

Demand side policies aim to increase aggregate demand (AD). This needs to be done during a recession or a period of below-trend growth. If there is spare capacity (negative output gap) then demand-side policies can play a role in increasing the rate of economic growth. However, if the economy is already close to full capacity (trend rate of growth) a further increase in AD will mainly cause inflation.

需求方政策的目的是增加總需求（AD）。這需要在經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退或增長(zhǎng)低于趨勢(shì)的時(shí)期進(jìn)行。如果有剩余產(chǎn)能（負(fù)產(chǎn)出缺口），那么需求方政策可以在提高經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)速度方面發(fā)揮作用。然而，如果經(jīng)濟(jì)已經(jīng)接近滿負(fù)荷（趨勢(shì)增長(zhǎng)率），進(jìn)一步增加AD將主要導(dǎo)致通貨膨脹。

In this case, the economy at Y1 has spare capacity. Therefore an increase in AD leads to a rise in real GDP.

在這種情況下，Y1的經(jīng)濟(jì)有閑置產(chǎn)能。因此，AD的增加會(huì)導(dǎo)致實(shí)際GDP的上升。

Monetary Policy 貨幣政策

Monetary policy is the most common tool for influencing economic activity. To boost AD, the Central Bank (or government) can cut interest rates. Lower interest rates reduce the cost of borrowing, encouraging investment and consumer spending. Lower interest rates also reduce the incentive to save, making spending more attractive instead. Lower interest rates will also reduce mortgage interest payments, increasing disposable income for consumers.

貨幣政策是影響經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)的最常見工具。為了促進(jìn)AD，中央銀行（或政府）可以降低利率。較低的利率降低了借貸成本，鼓勵(lì)投資和消費(fèi)支出。較低的利率也減少了儲(chǔ)蓄的動(dòng)力，使消費(fèi)反而更有吸引力。較低的利率也將減少抵押貸款利息的支付，增加消費(fèi)者的可支配收入。

In 2009, base rates were cut to 0.5% to try and stimulate economic growth in the UK.

2009年，基準(zhǔn)利率被降至0.5%，以試圖刺激英國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。

Evaluation of Monetary Policy 貨幣政策的評(píng)估

Lower interest rates may not always boost spending. In a liquidity trap, lower interest rates may not increase spending because people are trying to pay back debts. In 2009, UK interest rates were cut to 0.5%, but spending remained subdued. Banks were unwilling to lend because of liquidity shortages. Therefore, although in theory, it was cheap to borrow, it was hard to actually create credit. Therefore, this shows monetary policy can be ineffective in boosting economic growth

較低的利率可能并不總是能促進(jìn)支出。在流動(dòng)性陷阱中，較低的利率可能不會(huì)增加支出，因?yàn)槿藗冋谂斶€債務(wù)。2009年，英國(guó)的利率被削減到0.5%，但支出仍然受到抑制。由于流動(dòng)性短缺，銀行不愿意放貸。因此，雖然在理論上，借貸很便宜，但實(shí)際上很難創(chuàng)造信貸。因此，這表明貨幣政策在促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)方面可能是無(wú)效的。

Another criticism of monetary policy is that cutting interest rates very low could distort future economic activity. For example, the US cut interest rates following the economic uncertainty of 9/11. These low-interest rates encouraged people to take on ambitious loans and mortgages; this was a factor behind the US housing bubble. Therefore cutting interest rates, at the wrong time, can contribute to a future housing and asset bubble which will destabilise economic growth. However, in 2009-12, the depth of the financial crisis means there is no immediate danger of a housing bubble, so it was appropriate to keep interest rates at zero.

對(duì)貨幣政策的另一個(gè)批評(píng)是，把利率降得很低可能會(huì)扭曲未來(lái)的經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)。例如，美國(guó)在9/11事件的經(jīng)濟(jì)不確定性之后削減了利率。這些低利率鼓勵(lì)人們接受雄心勃勃的貸款和抵押貸款；這是美國(guó)房地產(chǎn)泡沫的一個(gè)因素。因此，在錯(cuò)誤的時(shí)間削減利率，可能有助于未來(lái)的住房和資產(chǎn)泡沫，這將破壞經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的穩(wěn)定性。然而，在2009-12年，金融危機(jī)的深度意味著沒有立即出現(xiàn)住房泡沫的危險(xiǎn)，所以將利率保持在零是合適的。

2. Quantitative Easing 量化寬松

In a liquidity trap, where lower interest rates fail to boost demand, the Central Bank may need to pursue more unconventional types of monetary policy. Quantitative easing involves increasing the money supply and buying bonds to keep bond rates low. The hope is that the increase in the money supply and lower interest rates will boost investment and economic activity. The fear is that increasing the money supply could cause inflation. Though evidence from 2009-12 suggests that the inflationary impact was minimal. Without quantitative easing, the recession was likely to be deeper, though QE alone failed to return the economy back to a normal growth projection.

在流動(dòng)性陷阱中，較低的利率不能促進(jìn)需求，中央銀行可能需要采取更多非常規(guī)類型的貨幣政策。量化寬松涉及增加貨幣供應(yīng)量和購(gòu)買債券，以保持低的債券利率。希望的是，貨幣供應(yīng)量的增加和較低的利率將促進(jìn)投資和經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)。人們擔(dān)心的是，增加貨幣供應(yīng)量可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致通貨膨脹。盡管2009-12年的證據(jù)表明，通貨膨脹的影響是最小的。如果沒有量化寬松政策，經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退可能會(huì)更深，盡管量化寬松本身未能使經(jīng)濟(jì)恢復(fù)到正常的增長(zhǎng)預(yù)測(cè)。

3. Fiscal Policy 財(cái)政政策

The government can boost demand by cutting tax and increasing government spending. Lower income tax will increase disposable income and encourage consumer spending. Higher government spending will create jobs and provide an economic stimulus.

政府可以通過減稅和增加政府開支來(lái)促進(jìn)需求。降低所得稅將增加可支配收入，鼓勵(lì)消費(fèi)者支出。更高的政府支出將創(chuàng)造就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)并提供經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激。

The problem with expansionary fiscal policy is that it leads to an increase in government borrowing. To finance this extra spending, the government have to borrow from the private sector. If the economy is already growing, then higher government borrowing can crowd out the private sector. Expansionary fiscal policy is also criticised by those who fear it is an excuse to permanently increase the size of the government sector.

擴(kuò)張性財(cái)政政策的問題是，它導(dǎo)致了政府借款的增加。為了給這些額外的支出提供資金，政府必須向私營(yíng)部門借款。如果經(jīng)濟(jì)已經(jīng)在增長(zhǎng)，那么更多的政府借貸會(huì)排擠私營(yíng)部門。擴(kuò)張性財(cái)政政策也受到了一些人的批評(píng)，他們擔(dān)心這是一個(gè)永久擴(kuò)大政府部門規(guī)模的借口。

However, if the economy sees a rapid fall in private spending, and a rise in the saving ratio, expansionary fiscal policy can help provide a boost to demand in the economy without causing crowding out.

然而，如果經(jīng)濟(jì)中的私人支出迅速下降，儲(chǔ)蓄率上升，擴(kuò)張性財(cái)政政策可以幫助促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)中的需求，而不會(huì)造成排擠現(xiàn)象。

In 2009/10, UK government borrowing increased as they pursued expansionary fiscal policy.

在2009/10年度，由于英國(guó)政府推行擴(kuò)張性財(cái)政政策，其借款有所增加。

The aim of expansionary fiscal policy is for the government to offset the fall in private sector spending. Similarly, during a period of economic expansion, the government may need to do the opposite of higher taxes and lower spending to create a budget surplus.

擴(kuò)張性財(cái)政政策的目的是讓政府抵消私人部門支出的下降。同樣，在經(jīng)濟(jì)擴(kuò)張時(shí)期，政府可能需要做相反的事情，即提高稅收和降低支出，以創(chuàng)造預(yù)算盈余。

4. Devaluation 貶值

For countries stuck in a fixed exchange rate. Devaluation can help restore competitiveness and boost domestic demand. A fall in the exchange rate makes exports cheaper and imports more expensive.

對(duì)于停留在固定匯率的國(guó)家。貶值可以幫助恢復(fù)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力和促進(jìn)國(guó)內(nèi)需求。匯率的下降使出口更便宜，進(jìn)口更昂貴。

For example, Argentina and Iceland both had rapid devaluations, which in the medium term helped their economic recovery. The UK also benefited from leaving the exchange rate mechanism in 1992.

例如，阿根廷和冰島都進(jìn)行了快速貶值，這在中期內(nèi)有助于其經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇。英國(guó)也從1992年脫離匯率機(jī)制中受益。

The disadvantage of devaluation is that it can lead to short-term economic pain. Rising import prices increase inflation and reduce standards of living. Devaluation is also seen as a sign of economic and political weakness.

貶值的缺點(diǎn)是，它可能導(dǎo)致短期經(jīng)濟(jì)痛苦。進(jìn)口價(jià)格的上漲會(huì)加劇通貨膨脹，降低生活水平。貶值也被看作是經(jīng)濟(jì)和政治疲軟的標(biāo)志。

In the case of Eurozone countries, devaluation is needed (see: competitiveness in Europe), but it is much harder to devalue and leave the exchange rate because of the likelihood of capital flight.

就歐元區(qū)國(guó)家而言，需要貶值（見：歐洲的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力），但由于資本外逃的可能性，貶值和離開匯率的難度更大。

Limitations of demand side policies 需求方政策的局限性

Demand-side policies cannot increase the rate of growth above the long-run trend rate without causing an unsustainable boom and bust.

需求方政策不能在不引起不可持續(xù)的繁榮和蕭條的情況下將增長(zhǎng)率提高到長(zhǎng)期趨勢(shì)率以上。

For example, in 1972, the UK chancellor, Anthony Barber announced a ‘dash for growth’. Taxes were cut against a backdrop of rising house prices and inflation. This led to the Barber boom – rapid economic growth. However, it also caused a spike in inflation, and the growth proved unsustainable.

例如，在1972年，英國(guó)財(cái)政大臣安東尼-巴伯宣布了 "沖刺增長(zhǎng)"。在房?jī)r(jià)和通貨膨脹上升的背景下，稅收被削減。這導(dǎo)致了巴伯的繁榮--經(jīng)濟(jì)快速增長(zhǎng)。然而，這也造成了通貨膨脹的飆升，而且這種增長(zhǎng)被證明是不可持續(xù)的。

In the 1980s, there was a repeat boom and bust. In the late 1980s, there was a loosening of monetary and fiscal policy. This led to very high growth and inflation; this growth proved unsustainable, leading to the recession of 1991-92.

在20世紀(jì)80年代，出現(xiàn)了重復(fù)的繁榮和蕭條。在80年代末，貨幣和財(cái)政政策出現(xiàn)了松動(dòng)。這導(dǎo)致了非常高的增長(zhǎng)和通貨膨脹；這種增長(zhǎng)證明是不可持續(xù)的，導(dǎo)致了1991-92年的衰退。

In some cases, demand-side policies need to be used to limit the growth of aggregate demand. It is necessary to avoid an economic boom, where growth proves unsustainable and inflationary. Managing AD to avoid boom and bust cycles can help provide a longer period of economic expansion.

在某些情況下，需要使用需求方政策來(lái)限制總需求的增長(zhǎng)。這對(duì)于避免經(jīng)濟(jì)繁榮是必要的，因?yàn)樵谶@種情況下，增長(zhǎng)被證明是不可持續(xù)的和通貨膨脹的。管理AD以避免繁榮和蕭條的周期，可以幫助提供一個(gè)較長(zhǎng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)擴(kuò)張期。

Supply-side policies 供應(yīng)方政策

The alternative strategy for improving economic growth is to use supply-side policies. These attempt to increase productivity and efficiency of the economy.

改善經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的另一個(gè)戰(zhàn)略是使用供應(yīng)方政策。這些政策試圖提高經(jīng)濟(jì)的生產(chǎn)力和效率。

Supply-side policies include 供應(yīng)方政策包括:

Lower Income Taxes 降低所得稅. It is argued lower income tax can boost the incentive to work and increase labour supply. It is possible, if income taxes were excessive, then cutting them may encourage people to work more. However, this argument is often exaggerated. Reducing the basic rate of income tax from 23% to 22% would have a very minimal impact on labour supply. With a tax cut, there is both an income and substitution effect. The income effect states that higher taxes make people work longer hours to achieve their target income. (economics of tax cuts)

有人認(rèn)為，降低所得稅可以提高工作的積極性，增加勞動(dòng)力供給。有可能的是，如果所得稅過高，那么削減所得稅可能會(huì)鼓勵(lì)人們更多地工作。然而，這種說法往往被夸大了。將所得稅的基本稅率從23%降至22%，對(duì)勞動(dòng)力供給的影響非常小。在減稅的情況下，同時(shí)存在著收入和替代效應(yīng)。收入效應(yīng)指出，較高的稅收使人們工作更長(zhǎng)時(shí)間以實(shí)現(xiàn)其目標(biāo)收入。(減稅的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)原理)

Flexible labour markets 靈活的勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng). Highly regulated labour markets, with excessive regulation, may discourage firms from employing workers and setting up in the first place. It is argued that countries such as France have too much labour market restrictions, such as the cost of firing workers, maximum working week and minimum wages. More flexible labour markets can thus provide a long-term boost to investment. However, there is a trade-off. More flexible labour markets could increase job insecurity and lead to harmful effects on labour productivity.

高度監(jiān)管的勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)，過度的監(jiān)管，可能會(huì)使企業(yè)首先不愿意雇用工人和設(shè)立公司。有人認(rèn)為，像法國(guó)這樣的國(guó)家有太多的勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)限制，如解雇工人的費(fèi)用、最高工作周和最低工資。因此，更靈活的勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)可以為投資提供長(zhǎng)期的推動(dòng)。然而，這也是一種折衷。更靈活的勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)可能會(huì)增加工作的不安全性，并導(dǎo)致對(duì)勞動(dòng)生產(chǎn)率的有害影響。

Betterｕｎｉｏｎrelationships 更好的工會(huì)關(guān)系. In the 1970s, the UK economy suffered because of poor industrial relations. There were frequent strikes which stopped production. With an adversarial attitude, it was difficult to promote more labour efficient production processes. Reducing the power of trades unions can help to improve labour productivity.

在20世紀(jì)70年代，英國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)因?yàn)椴涣嫉膭谫Y關(guān)系而受到影響。頻繁的罷工使生產(chǎn)停止。在對(duì)抗性的態(tài)度下，很難促進(jìn)更多的勞動(dòng)效率的生產(chǎn)過程。減少工會(huì)的權(quán)力可以幫助提高勞動(dòng)生產(chǎn)率。

Privatisation and deregulation 私有化和放松管制. Privatising industries can increase efficiency as private firms have a greater profit incentive to cut costs and boost productivity.

行業(yè)私有化可以提高效率，因?yàn)樗綘I(yíng)企業(yè)有更大的利潤(rùn)動(dòng)力來(lái)削減成本和提高生產(chǎn)力。

Limitations of Supply-Side Policies 供應(yīng)方政策的局限性

• Supply-side policies can take considerable time. For example, if you invested in better education and training, it could take several years for this to lead to higher labour productivity. 供應(yīng)方政策可能需要相當(dāng)長(zhǎng)的時(shí)間。例如，如果你投資于更好的教育和培訓(xùn)，這可能需要幾年的時(shí)間來(lái)提高勞動(dòng)生產(chǎn)率。
• In a recession, supply-side policies are not going to solve the fundamental problem of deficiency of aggregate demand. In a recession increasing the flexibility of labour markets and encouraging investment may help to some extent. But, unless there is sufficient demand, firms will be reluctant to increase production and set up new business ventures. For example, in how to deal with youth unemployment, the ECB president mentioned a ‘growth pact’. But, this growth pact is only considering supply side policies and not the lack of demand in countries with high unemployment. 在經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退時(shí)，供應(yīng)方政策不會(huì)解決總需求不足的根本問題。在經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退中，增加勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)的靈活性和鼓勵(lì)投資可能在一定程度上有幫助。但是，除非有足夠的需求，否則企業(yè)將不愿意增加生產(chǎn)和建立新的商業(yè)企業(yè)。例如，在如何處理青年失業(yè)問題上，歐洲央行行長(zhǎng)提到了一個(gè) "增長(zhǎng)公約"。但是，這個(gè)增長(zhǎng)公約只考慮了供應(yīng)方面的政策，而沒有考慮高失業(yè)率國(guó)家的需求不足問題。
• Politicians often over-estimate the potential for supply side policies to improve the long term growth rate. For example, in the 1980s, the UK pursued several relatively successful supply-side policies (privatisation, reduce the power of unions, lower income tax). But, there was no economic miracle, when growth went above the long-run trend rate of 2.5% – it proved unsustainable and led to boom and bust. 政治家們往往高估了供應(yīng)方政策對(duì)提高長(zhǎng)期增長(zhǎng)率的潛力。例如，在20世紀(jì)80年代，英國(guó)推行了幾個(gè)相對(duì)成功的供應(yīng)方政策（私有化、減少工會(huì)的權(quán)力、降低所得稅）。但是，當(dāng)增長(zhǎng)超過2.5%的長(zhǎng)期趨勢(shì)率時(shí)，并沒有出現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)奇跡--事實(shí)證明它是不可持續(xù)的，并導(dǎo)致了繁榮和蕭條。